How the Patriots Can Upset the Seahawks in Super Bowl LX

The New England Patriots enter Super Bowl LX against the Seattle Seahawks as underdogs, but unlike Super Bowl XX, when the Chicago Bears KO’d New England 46-10, the Patriots do have more than a puncher’s chance against the Seahawks.

Here’s what New England will have to do Sunday to pave a path to victory:

Improve on offense

Quarterback Drake Maye looked like an MVP candidate during the regular season, when he directed a New England offense that was second among NFL teams in points per game (28.8) and third in yards per game (379.2). That offense hasn’t been nearly as effective in the postseason, however.

The Patriots are averaging 18 points per game in the playoffs. That point total includes a defensive TD New England scored during its 28-16 victory over Houston in the AFC’s divisional round.

Many of the offense’s problems in the playoffs have come on third down and in the red zone. The Patriots have converted on 13 of their 43 third-down attempts, and entered the end zone twice in six trips inside their opponents’ 20-yard line. Maye has also been sacked 15 times in the three playoff games.

Some of the issues can be explained by the snowy and windy conditions in Denver during the second half of the AFC championship game, but that still leaves 10 quarters of lackluster offense.

Maye passed for 4,394 yards with 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions during the regular season. Since New England will be facing a Seattle defense that ranked first in points allowed during the regular season (17.2), any chance of an upset on Sunday starts with Maye and the offense’s ability to revert to regular-season form.

“We'll have to stay balanced,” New England coach Mike Vrabel said. “Our best games we were able to provide some semblance of run game and were able to kind of marry some of the play-action passes. I don’t think in this league you want to turn things into a drop-back passing game. That makes things really difficult.”

Limit Seattle’s running game

If the Patriots can be stingy against the run they can turn Seattle into something close to a one-dimensional offense and force quarterback Sam Darnold to beat them. That might be the best recipe for the defense to have success Sunday.

New England ranked fifth in rush defense during the regular season (101.7 ypg), a number that would have likely been even better if defensive tackle Milton Williams hadn’t missed five games with a high-ankle sprain.

Seattle’s offense averaged 123.3 yards rushing per game this season (tied for 10th), but running back Zach Charbonnet tore an ACL in the divisional round against the 49ers and won’t play Sunday. If the Patriots can bottle up Kenneth Walker they can focus more resources on Seattle’s passing game, meaning more pressure on Darnold and giving extra attention to wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who led the league with 1,793 receiving yards.

“We’ll need our best effort (defensively) on Sunday to help us win the football game,” Vrabel said.

Don’t allow big plays on special teams

The Patriots don’t have to win the special teams battle, but they can’t lose it – at least not by a significant margin.

Seattle’s Rashid Shaheed is an electric returner who is a threat to score on both kickoffs and punts. He set the tone in the divisional round by opening the game with a 95-yard kickoff return for a TD.

Shaheed and punter Michael Dickson were both named to the Pro Bowl, and placekicker Jason Myers led the league in scoring (171 points).

“Everybody treats it as if it’s their own primary position,” Seattle’s Brady Russell said. “Special teams isn’t just a side job, it’s (our) main job.”

By most metrics New England has performed well on special teams this season, and the Patriots will likely need another strong effort from that group to prevail on Sunday.

“We’re just trying to build a program, and first year of the program we ended up here,” Vrabel said. “We’re excited about it and we will be ready to go.”